Quick analysis of the Iowa caucus returns:

It seems the big winners in Iowa are Rick Santorum and Ron Paul.  Though Mitt Romney will place first or second, he has been consistently pegged as the establishment front-runner so a close first-place finish, or a second-place finish, may be seen as an upset of sorts.

Whether Santorum is just another flavor-of-the-month or a serious candidate remains to be seen. Is he surging at the right time, as some pundits say, or did the Iowa caucuses just happen to fall at his peak and the results would have been much different if the caucuses had been held a week from now?  Only time will tell.  Santorum seemed to have the most supporters at the Carter Lake, IA caucus; however, many of them were under 18.  A number of large families (not sure if they were Catholic or Baptist; the long skirts indicated “baptist” to me) were present with even pre-teen children holding “Santorum” signs. Fundamental Baptist, and Bill Gothard devotee, JimBob Duggar and family were also reported to be touring Iowa in support of Santorum.  So he has some interesting characters in his camp.  His supporters also seemed to be unclear on the distinction between the US and the rest of the world in that their statements indicated a belief that the US had full right and authority to intervene anywhere in the world if perceived American interests were being violated. It seems as though a President Santorum might be so focused on the affairs of the rest of the world, specifically the Middle East, that one has to wonder what focus he might actually have on the homeland. Would American lives be sacrificed so as to pit one Middle Eastern nation against another?

Newt Gingrich’s fourth place finish, much to the chagrin of the hawkish Republican establishment, probably means he is not to be legitimately regarded as a front-runner, though it remains to be seen how he will do in New Hampshire.

Despite finishing third, it seems Ron Paul may have had the most to gain, as the media is now forced to take him seriously. Though there were still a few curious happenings, such as CNN losing the feed of a active-duty military Paul supporter right as he was starting to say Israel was fully capable of defending itself, tonight seemed to be the most positive airtime Ron Paul has received on the major networks in recent history. A third place finish in Iowa, with 21% of the vote (and no candidate receiving more than 25%), seems to prove that he is becoming better known by voters and is no longer seen as a fringe or niche candidate. This should in turn lead to more time in debates, and more opportunities to directly engage with the other front-runners.

It seems that one area the Paul campaign could improve on is with the socially-conservative voters, including some evangelicals. This is a demographic that seems to have been dominated by Santorum in Iowa, despite Fox News even highlighting how similar the two candidates are on issues such as abortion. <http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/01/03/santorum-paul-compete-to-prove-pro-life-credentials/>  Perhaps in future debates or advertisements, Paul should place more of a focus on his pro-life record, his championing of causes such as homeschooling, etc. Socially-conservative voters will need to be persuaded that a states-rights position does not counter a pro-life position, and perhaps also be shown that it is inconsistent to demand a smaller and less-intrusive government except in cases where a national edict serves the right cause, as this would essentially set precedent for any other group to use as well in the future. Paul’s literature, both print and online, highlights his pro-life commitment; another pamphlet and a section of his website describe his pro-homeschooling (education freedom) stance.  These are areas that need to be promoted more in order to gain with social conservatives and some evangelicals.

Paul is not going to win dispensationalists. This particular subset of evangelicals, probably the majority of American evangelicals, will be too committed to Israel above all other interests and this is not something Paul is going to sway on.  As a Lutheran, he does not share the belief that Israel remains God’s chosen people and that Christians must defend the political nation-state of Israel in order to receive God’s favor. Because this is a key tenet of dispensational theology, Paul is not going to win the dispensational vote. Period.  But not all social conservatives are dispensationalists. This is an area where hopefully Reformed Christians will side with Paul, if on religious grounds, rather than with the dispensationalists; in spiritual terms, there is no significance to the modern nation-state of Israel, and so the US is not going to fall under judgment if it does not defend Israel at all costs!

The big wild-card at this point is where the supporters of the bottom-tier candidates will go once their preferred candidate drops out.  At this point it seems to me that once Perry, Bachmann, Gingrich, etc. call it quits, Santorum will gain the most, as he remains a very establishment-friendly candidate that also scores well with the dispensationalists. But will he retain the supporters he has now, or is he just another flavor of the month?  And will Paul be able to build on a strong showing in Iowa to win supporters away from Romney or Santorum?  All this remains to be seen.